Saturation ranking
Where retail bakeries is most and least saturated in California
Every California market with sourced Bakeries data, ranked on how much provision it already has. Counties are measured per 10,000 residents. Cities are measured as a share of the businesses in the same ZIP codes, because a city’s establishment counts cover its ZIP codes rather than its city limits and cannot be divided by its municipal population. Neither measure says anything about revenue or profitability, and a crowded market is not automatically a bad one: it is also where the most businesses come up for sale.
- Statewide establishments
- 1,377
- 2023 County Business Patterns
- State median density
- 0.3
- Per 10,000 residents, counties
- Counties ranked
- 29
- of 35 with data
- Cities ranked
- 38
- of 105 with data
Most saturated counties for bakeries
29 of 35 counties with sourced data qualify for this ranking. Markets with fewer than 5 establishments are excluded at both levels, because a single opening or closing would move them enough to dominate the list. Counties under 2,000 residents are also excluded, where a per-capita figure is arithmetically true and analytically useless.
| # | County | Establishments | Per 10k | Vs state median | Reading |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Humboldt County131,647 residents | 10 | 0.8 | +152% | Densely served |
| 2 | Monterey County433,729 residents | 31 | 0.7 | +138% | Densely served |
| 3 | San Francisco County826,079 residents | 58 | 0.7 | +133% | Densely served |
| 4 | San Luis Obispo County282,367 residents | 16 | 0.6 | +88% | Densely served |
| 5 | Santa Cruz County258,852 residents | 14 | 0.5 | +80% | Densely served |
| 6 | Los Angeles County9,694,934 residents | 469 | 0.5 | +61% | Densely served |
| 7 | Alameda County1,636,630 residents | 71 | 0.4 | +44% | Above average |
| 8 | San Mateo County743,568 residents | 31 | 0.4 | +39% | Above average |
| 9 | Orange County3,149,507 residents | 131 | 0.4 | +38% | Above average |
| 10 | Sonoma County486,444 residents | 20 | 0.4 | +37% | Above average |
| 11 | Santa Clara County1,914,391 residents | 70 | 0.4 | +22% | Above average |
| 12 | Marin County253,694 residents | 9 | 0.4 | +18% | Above average |
| 13 | Ventura County830,851 residents | 28 | 0.3 | +12% | Typical |
| 14 | San Diego County3,282,248 residents | 105 | 0.3 | +6% | Typical |
| 15 | El Dorado County192,323 residents | 6 | 0.3 | +4% | Typical |
State median for this industry: 0.3 establishments per 10,000 residents. A high figure means more provision per resident, not more demand.
Least saturated counties for bakeries
The same 29 counties, read from the bottom of the ordering upward. Thin provision is worth checking against the neighbouring counties before treating it as an opening.
| # | County | Establishments | Per 10k | Vs state median | Reading |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | San Joaquin County823,815 residents | 13 | 0.2 | -48% | Thinly served |
| 2 | Placer County442,081 residents | 7 | 0.2 | -47% | Thinly served |
| 3 | Stanislaus County557,719 residents | 9 | 0.2 | -46% | Thinly served |
| 4 | Kern County927,068 residents | 16 | 0.2 | -43% | Thinly served |
| 5 | Sacramento County1,618,460 residents | 29 | 0.2 | -40% | Thinly served |
| 6 | Merced County297,260 residents | 6 | 0.2 | -33% | Below average |
| 7 | Riverside County2,544,916 residents | 53 | 0.2 | -31% | Below average |
| 8 | Yolo County224,410 residents | 5 | 0.2 | -26% | Below average |
| 9 | San Bernardino County2,224,091 residents | 50 | 0.2 | -25% | Below average |
| 10 | Santa Barbara County442,065 residents | 10 | 0.2 | -25% | Below average |
| 11 | Fresno County1,035,456 residents | 24 | 0.2 | -23% | Below average |
| 12 | Contra Costa County1,170,070 residents | 28 | 0.2 | -20% | Below average |
| 13 | Tulare County485,146 residents | 12 | 0.2 | -18% | Below average |
| 14 | Solano County455,376 residents | 13 | 0.3 | -5% | Typical |
| 15 | El Dorado County192,323 residents | 6 | 0.3 | +4% | Typical |
State median for this industry: 0.3 establishments per 10,000 residents. A low figure can mean a genuine gap, or a market served from the next county over.
Most saturated cities for bakeries
38 of 105 cities with sourced data qualify for this ranking. Markets with fewer than 5 establishments are excluded at both levels, because a single opening or closing would move them enough to dominate the list. Cities with fewer than 500 businesses in total are also excluded, because on a base that small the industry’s share moves on rounding.
| # | City | Establishments | Share of local | Vs state share | Reading |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ArcataHumboldt, 622 businesses in total | 5 | 0.80% | +1033% | Densely served |
| 2 | WestminsterOrange, 2,112 businesses in total | 14 | 0.66% | +834% | Densely served |
| 3 | WatsonvilleSanta Cruz, 1,538 businesses in total | 10 | 0.65% | +817% | Densely served |
| 4 | Bell GardensLos Angeles, 1,012 businesses in total | 5 | 0.49% | +596% | Densely served |
| 5 | NorwalkLos Angeles, 1,312 businesses in total | 6 | 0.46% | +545% | Densely served |
| 6 | Union CityAlameda, 1,362 businesses in total | 6 | 0.44% | +521% | Densely served |
| 7 | Monterey ParkLos Angeles, 2,109 businesses in total | 8 | 0.38% | +435% | Densely served |
| 8 | San GabrielLos Angeles, 2,119 businesses in total | 8 | 0.38% | +432% | Densely served |
| 9 | SalinasMonterey, 3,451 businesses in total | 13 | 0.38% | +431% | Densely served |
| 10 | National CitySan Diego, 1,379 businesses in total | 5 | 0.36% | +411% | Densely served |
| 11 | BrentwoodContra Costa, 1,414 businesses in total | 5 | 0.35% | +398% | Densely served |
| 12 | South El MonteLos Angeles, 1,852 businesses in total | 6 | 0.32% | +357% | Densely served |
| 13 | AlamedaAlameda, 1,899 businesses in total | 6 | 0.32% | +345% | Densely served |
| 14 | MilpitasSanta Clara, 2,220 businesses in total | 7 | 0.32% | +344% | Densely served |
| 15 | OxnardVentura, 3,760 businesses in total | 11 | 0.29% | +312% | Densely served |
| 16 | GlendaleLos Angeles, 7,130 businesses in total | 19 | 0.27% | +276% | Densely served |
| 17 | La PuenteLos Angeles, 2,119 businesses in total | 5 | 0.24% | +233% | Densely served |
| 18 | RedlandsSan Bernardino, 2,509 businesses in total | 5 | 0.20% | +181% | Densely served |
| 19 | San Luis ObispoSan Luis Obispo, 2,659 businesses in total | 5 | 0.19% | +165% | Densely served |
| 20 | San MateoSan Mateo, 4,307 businesses in total | 7 | 0.16% | +129% | Densely served |
| 21 | Garden GroveOrange, 3,714 businesses in total | 6 | 0.16% | +128% | Densely served |
| 22 | Santa MonicaLos Angeles, 7,320 businesses in total | 11 | 0.15% | +112% | Densely served |
| 23 | Rancho CucamongaSan Bernardino, 5,340 businesses in total | 8 | 0.15% | +111% | Densely served |
| 24 | Los AngelesLos Angeles, 77,828 businesses in total | 110 | 0.14% | +99% | Densely served |
| 25 | Thousand OaksVentura, 3,759 businesses in total | 5 | 0.13% | +88% | Densely served |
Statewide, 0.07% of California businesses are in this industry. A higher local share means the industry takes up more of the local business base than it does statewide.
City figures are aggregated over the ZIP codes the Postal Service assigns to each place, which do not follow municipal boundaries. That is why the comparison here is a share of the businesses in those same ZIP codes rather than a figure per resident: both sides then cover the same ground, so a city that loses establishments to a separately named ZIP loses its denominator with them.
Most underserved cities for bakeries
The bottom of the same ordering. These are the California cities carrying the least bakeries provision per resident among those that clear both floors.
| # | City | Establishments | Share of local | Vs state share | Reading |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | San DiegoSan Diego, 42,106 businesses in total | 18 | 0.04% | -40% | Below average |
| 2 | Long BeachLos Angeles, 9,885 businesses in total | 5 | 0.05% | -29% | Below average |
| 3 | OaklandAlameda, 10,328 businesses in total | 6 | 0.06% | -18% | Below average |
| 4 | RiversideRiverside, 7,958 businesses in total | 5 | 0.06% | -11% | Typical |
| 5 | IrvineOrange, 14,947 businesses in total | 11 | 0.07% | +4% | Typical |
| 6 | San JoseSanta Clara, 21,501 businesses in total | 16 | 0.07% | +5% | Typical |
| 7 | AnaheimOrange, 9,049 businesses in total | 7 | 0.08% | +9% | Typical |
| 8 | PasadenaLos Angeles, 7,697 businesses in total | 6 | 0.08% | +10% | Typical |
| 9 | SacramentoSacramento, 19,687 businesses in total | 16 | 0.08% | +15% | Typical |
| 10 | San FranciscoSan Francisco, 33,575 businesses in total | 35 | 0.10% | +47% | Above average |
| 11 | OntarioSan Bernardino, 5,487 businesses in total | 6 | 0.11% | +54% | Densely served |
| 12 | BurbankLos Angeles, 5,899 businesses in total | 7 | 0.12% | +67% | Densely served |
| 13 | Santa AnaOrange, 8,181 businesses in total | 10 | 0.12% | +72% | Densely served |
| 14 | Thousand OaksVentura, 3,759 businesses in total | 5 | 0.13% | +88% | Densely served |
| 15 | Los AngelesLos Angeles, 77,828 businesses in total | 110 | 0.14% | +99% | Densely served |
| 16 | Rancho CucamongaSan Bernardino, 5,340 businesses in total | 8 | 0.15% | +111% | Densely served |
| 17 | Santa MonicaLos Angeles, 7,320 businesses in total | 11 | 0.15% | +112% | Densely served |
| 18 | Garden GroveOrange, 3,714 businesses in total | 6 | 0.16% | +128% | Densely served |
| 19 | San MateoSan Mateo, 4,307 businesses in total | 7 | 0.16% | +129% | Densely served |
| 20 | San Luis ObispoSan Luis Obispo, 2,659 businesses in total | 5 | 0.19% | +165% | Densely served |
| 21 | RedlandsSan Bernardino, 2,509 businesses in total | 5 | 0.20% | +181% | Densely served |
| 22 | La PuenteLos Angeles, 2,119 businesses in total | 5 | 0.24% | +233% | Densely served |
| 23 | GlendaleLos Angeles, 7,130 businesses in total | 19 | 0.27% | +276% | Densely served |
| 24 | OxnardVentura, 3,760 businesses in total | 11 | 0.29% | +312% | Densely served |
| 25 | MilpitasSanta Clara, 2,220 businesses in total | 7 | 0.32% | +344% | Densely served |
Statewide, 0.07% of California businesses are in this industry. A lower local share can mean a genuine gap, or a market served from the next town over.
How to read these rankings
- Both measures are supply measures. They say nothing about how much each business earns, how large it is, or how much demand comes from outside the market.
- The two levels are not directly comparable to each other. A county figure is establishments per resident; a city figure is this industry’s share of the local business base against the statewide share. Compare counties to counties and cities to cities.
- A thinly served market can be a genuine gap or a market already served from a neighbouring town. The individual market pages list the nearest comparable places for exactly this check.
- A densely served market means competition, but it is also where the largest pool of existing businesses sits, and therefore where the most owners reach retirement each year.
- Counties are the more stable measure. City figures rest on ZIP code geography, which the Postal Service redraws as it pleases, so a city can gain or lose a ZIP between years.
Full bakeries data for California/All industry rankings/Methodology
Sources
- U.S. Census Bureau, 2023 County Business Patterns. Establishment counts, employment and annual payroll by NAICS. Retrieved 2026-09-08.
- U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (2026Q1). Quarterly establishment counts and employment for employers covered by unemployment insurance. Retrieved 2026-09-08.
- U.S. Census Bureau, 2023 ZIP Code Business Patterns. Establishment counts by ZIP code and NAICS, aggregated over the ZIP codes assigned to each city, including the all-industry totals used as the local business base. Retrieved 2026-09-10.