Saturation ranking
Where child day care services is most and least saturated in California
Every California market with sourced Childcare data, ranked on how much provision it already has. Counties are measured per 10,000 residents. Cities are measured as a share of the businesses in the same ZIP codes, because a city’s establishment counts cover its ZIP codes rather than its city limits and cannot be divided by its municipal population. Neither measure says anything about revenue or profitability, and a crowded market is not automatically a bad one: it is also where the most businesses come up for sale.
- Statewide establishments
- 9,670
- 2023 County Business Patterns
- State median density
- 2.6
- Per 10,000 residents, counties
- Counties ranked
- 51
- of 53 with data
- Cities ranked
- 269
- of 354 with data
Most saturated counties for childcare
51 of 53 counties with sourced data qualify for this ranking. Markets with fewer than 5 establishments are excluded at both levels, because a single opening or closing would move them enough to dominate the list. Counties under 2,000 residents are also excluded, where a per-capita figure is arithmetically true and analytically useless.
| # | County | Establishments | Per 10k | Vs state median | Reading |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | San Francisco County826,079 residents | 489 | 5.9 | +129% | Densely served |
| 2 | Marin County253,694 residents | 130 | 5.1 | +98% | Densely served |
| 3 | Santa Cruz County258,852 residents | 131 | 5.1 | +96% | Densely served |
| 4 | Plumas County18,583 residents | 9 | 4.8 | +87% | Densely served |
| 5 | San Mateo County743,568 residents | 357 | 4.8 | +86% | Densely served |
| 6 | Alameda County1,636,630 residents | 710 | 4.3 | +68% | Densely served |
| 7 | Santa Clara County1,914,391 residents | 803 | 4.2 | +62% | Densely served |
| 8 | Humboldt County131,647 residents | 52 | 3.9 | +53% | Densely served |
| 9 | San Luis Obispo County282,367 residents | 102 | 3.6 | +40% | Above average |
| 10 | Tehama County64,665 residents | 23 | 3.6 | +37% | Above average |
| 11 | Lassen County28,117 residents | 10 | 3.6 | +37% | Above average |
| 12 | Santa Barbara County442,065 residents | 147 | 3.3 | +29% | Above average |
| 13 | Contra Costa County1,170,070 residents | 385 | 3.3 | +27% | Above average |
| 14 | Napa County132,949 residents | 43 | 3.2 | +25% | Above average |
| 15 | Placer County442,081 residents | 142 | 3.2 | +24% | Above average |
State median for this industry: 2.6 establishments per 10,000 residents. A high figure means more provision per resident, not more demand.
Least saturated counties for childcare
The same 51 counties, read from the bottom of the ordering upward. Thin provision is worth checking against the neighbouring counties before treating it as an opening.
| # | County | Establishments | Per 10k | Vs state median | Reading |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tuolumne County53,160 residents | 6 | 1.1 | -56% | Thinly served |
| 2 | San Bernardino County2,224,091 residents | 258 | 1.2 | -55% | Thinly served |
| 3 | Tulare County485,146 residents | 60 | 1.2 | -52% | Thinly served |
| 4 | Riverside County2,544,916 residents | 336 | 1.3 | -49% | Thinly served |
| 5 | Fresno County1,035,456 residents | 139 | 1.3 | -48% | Thinly served |
| 6 | Merced County297,260 residents | 40 | 1.3 | -48% | Thinly served |
| 7 | Kings County154,327 residents | 23 | 1.5 | -42% | Thinly served |
| 8 | Kern County927,068 residents | 139 | 1.5 | -42% | Thinly served |
| 9 | Madera County167,927 residents | 26 | 1.5 | -40% | Thinly served |
| 10 | Stanislaus County557,719 residents | 94 | 1.7 | -35% | Below average |
| 11 | Yuba County88,691 residents | 15 | 1.7 | -35% | Below average |
| 12 | San Joaquin County823,815 residents | 140 | 1.7 | -34% | Below average |
| 13 | Del Norte County26,410 residents | 5 | 1.9 | -27% | Below average |
| 14 | Amador County41,876 residents | 8 | 1.9 | -26% | Below average |
| 15 | Monterey County433,729 residents | 83 | 1.9 | -26% | Below average |
State median for this industry: 2.6 establishments per 10,000 residents. A low figure can mean a genuine gap, or a market served from the next county over.
Most saturated cities for childcare
269 of 354 cities with sourced data qualify for this ranking. Markets with fewer than 5 establishments are excluded at both levels, because a single opening or closing would move them enough to dominate the list. Cities with fewer than 500 businesses in total are also excluded, because on a base that small the industry’s share moves on rounding.
| # | City | Establishments | Share of local | Vs state share | Reading |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | WatsonvilleSanta Cruz, 1,538 businesses in total | 68 | 4.42% | +390% | Densely served |
| 2 | AlbanyAlameda, 505 businesses in total | 17 | 3.37% | +273% | Densely served |
| 3 | SunnyvaleSanta Clara, 3,376 businesses in total | 101 | 2.99% | +232% | Densely served |
| 4 | CupertinoSanta Clara, 1,627 businesses in total | 47 | 2.89% | +220% | Densely served |
| 5 | Corte MaderaMarin, 513 businesses in total | 14 | 2.73% | +203% | Densely served |
| 6 | Santa MariaSanta Barbara, 2,804 businesses in total | 76 | 2.71% | +201% | Densely served |
| 7 | El CerritoContra Costa, 594 businesses in total | 16 | 2.69% | +199% | Densely served |
| 8 | AlamedaAlameda, 1,899 businesses in total | 51 | 2.69% | +198% | Densely served |
| 9 | DublinAlameda, 1,615 businesses in total | 42 | 2.60% | +188% | Densely served |
| 10 | DelanoKern, 510 businesses in total | 13 | 2.55% | +183% | Densely served |
| 11 | LincolnPlacer, 871 businesses in total | 21 | 2.41% | +167% | Densely served |
| 12 | AtascaderoSan Luis Obispo, 918 businesses in total | 22 | 2.40% | +166% | Densely served |
| 13 | FremontAlameda, 5,575 businesses in total | 132 | 2.37% | +163% | Densely served |
| 14 | PacificaSan Mateo, 637 businesses in total | 15 | 2.35% | +161% | Densely served |
| 15 | MilpitasSanta Clara, 2,220 businesses in total | 52 | 2.34% | +160% | Densely served |
| 16 | San MateoSan Mateo, 4,307 businesses in total | 95 | 2.21% | +145% | Densely served |
| 17 | OrovilleButte, 774 businesses in total | 17 | 2.20% | +144% | Densely served |
| 18 | LomitaLos Angeles, 563 businesses in total | 12 | 2.13% | +136% | Densely served |
| 19 | LancasterLos Angeles, 2,565 businesses in total | 54 | 2.11% | +133% | Densely served |
| 20 | OxnardVentura, 3,760 businesses in total | 78 | 2.07% | +130% | Densely served |
| 21 | CalexicoImperial, 641 businesses in total | 13 | 2.03% | +125% | Densely served |
| 22 | BelmontSan Mateo, 694 businesses in total | 14 | 2.02% | +124% | Densely served |
| 23 | Scotts ValleySanta Cruz, 547 businesses in total | 11 | 2.01% | +123% | Densely served |
| 24 | InglewoodLos Angeles, 2,000 businesses in total | 40 | 2.00% | +122% | Densely served |
| 25 | Daly CitySan Mateo, 1,538 businesses in total | 30 | 1.95% | +116% | Densely served |
Statewide, 0.90% of California businesses are in this industry. A higher local share means the industry takes up more of the local business base than it does statewide.
City figures are aggregated over the ZIP codes the Postal Service assigns to each place, which do not follow municipal boundaries. That is why the comparison here is a share of the businesses in those same ZIP codes rather than a figure per resident: both sides then cover the same ground, so a city that loses establishments to a separately named ZIP loses its denominator with them.
Most underserved cities for childcare
The bottom of the same ordering. These are the California cities carrying the least childcare provision per resident among those that clear both floors.
| # | City | Establishments | Share of local | Vs state share | Reading |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Newport BeachOrange, 6,234 businesses in total | 6 | 0.10% | -89% | Thinly served |
| 2 | Palm SpringsRiverside, 1,933 businesses in total | 5 | 0.26% | -71% | Thinly served |
| 3 | MontereyMonterey, 1,833 businesses in total | 5 | 0.27% | -70% | Thinly served |
| 4 | BreaOrange, 2,531 businesses in total | 7 | 0.28% | -69% | Thinly served |
| 5 | OrangeOrange, 5,761 businesses in total | 16 | 0.28% | -69% | Thinly served |
| 6 | CalabasasLos Angeles, 2,108 businesses in total | 6 | 0.28% | -68% | Thinly served |
| 7 | San ClementeOrange, 2,771 businesses in total | 8 | 0.29% | -68% | Thinly served |
| 8 | Westlake VillageLos Angeles, 1,669 businesses in total | 5 | 0.30% | -67% | Thinly served |
| 9 | CerritosLos Angeles, 1,970 businesses in total | 6 | 0.30% | -66% | Thinly served |
| 10 | Costa MesaOrange, 5,397 businesses in total | 17 | 0.31% | -65% | Thinly served |
| 11 | Laguna HillsOrange, 1,901 businesses in total | 6 | 0.32% | -65% | Thinly served |
| 12 | Rancho CucamongaSan Bernardino, 5,340 businesses in total | 17 | 0.32% | -65% | Thinly served |
| 13 | San GabrielLos Angeles, 2,119 businesses in total | 7 | 0.33% | -63% | Thinly served |
| 14 | ChinoSan Bernardino, 3,295 businesses in total | 12 | 0.36% | -60% | Thinly served |
| 15 | OntarioSan Bernardino, 5,487 businesses in total | 20 | 0.36% | -60% | Thinly served |
| 16 | Baldwin ParkLos Angeles, 1,638 businesses in total | 6 | 0.37% | -59% | Thinly served |
| 17 | FullertonOrange, 4,049 businesses in total | 15 | 0.37% | -59% | Thinly served |
| 18 | Palm DesertRiverside, 2,689 businesses in total | 10 | 0.37% | -59% | Thinly served |
| 19 | South El MonteLos Angeles, 1,852 businesses in total | 7 | 0.38% | -58% | Thinly served |
| 20 | El MonteLos Angeles, 1,835 businesses in total | 7 | 0.38% | -58% | Thinly served |
| 21 | TorranceLos Angeles, 7,600 businesses in total | 29 | 0.38% | -58% | Thinly served |
| 22 | Fountain ValleyOrange, 2,040 businesses in total | 8 | 0.39% | -57% | Thinly served |
| 23 | El SegundoLos Angeles, 2,288 businesses in total | 9 | 0.39% | -56% | Thinly served |
| 24 | Thousand OaksVentura, 3,759 businesses in total | 15 | 0.40% | -56% | Thinly served |
| 25 | GlendoraLos Angeles, 1,497 businesses in total | 6 | 0.40% | -56% | Thinly served |
Statewide, 0.90% of California businesses are in this industry. A lower local share can mean a genuine gap, or a market served from the next town over.
How to read these rankings
- Both measures are supply measures. They say nothing about how much each business earns, how large it is, or how much demand comes from outside the market.
- The two levels are not directly comparable to each other. A county figure is establishments per resident; a city figure is this industry’s share of the local business base against the statewide share. Compare counties to counties and cities to cities.
- A thinly served market can be a genuine gap or a market already served from a neighbouring town. The individual market pages list the nearest comparable places for exactly this check.
- A densely served market means competition, but it is also where the largest pool of existing businesses sits, and therefore where the most owners reach retirement each year.
- Counties are the more stable measure. City figures rest on ZIP code geography, which the Postal Service redraws as it pleases, so a city can gain or lose a ZIP between years.
Full childcare data for California/All industry rankings/Methodology
Sources
- U.S. Census Bureau, 2023 County Business Patterns. Establishment counts, employment and annual payroll by NAICS. Retrieved 2026-09-08.
- U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (2026Q1). Quarterly establishment counts and employment for employers covered by unemployment insurance. Retrieved 2026-09-08.
- U.S. Census Bureau, 2023 ZIP Code Business Patterns. Establishment counts by ZIP code and NAICS, aggregated over the ZIP codes assigned to each city, including the all-industry totals used as the local business base. Retrieved 2026-09-10.